My weekend weather

Apart from very light snow along the Missouri River this morning, we’re looking at a quiet day.  A warm front has turned stationary in western South Dakota and an even warmer day is scheduled for Rapid City and Pierre.  Back in the east, however, it’s looking like another below-average day with variable clouds.  Winds should not be a major factor today.
Tonight will be somewhat warmer for most as that air mass starts to budge eastwards.  Flurries and patchy fog are still possible in the east but our attention turns to the storm coming out of North Dakota.
This storm has a few more spring-time features.  Warm air will be tough to overcome for a while, especially in western and central KELOLAND.  This early rain will take away from some of our snowfall totals.  The best chance for a heavier band is from Aberdeen to Pipestone, MN.  We also have a Winter Storm Watch out covering similar areas but not Sioux Falls for now.
The system will track southwards from North Dakota late in the day, reaching the SE counties by evening.  Snow will continue overnight into Monday, in spurts.  By Monday morning we should be seeing pure snow but this transition could take awhile.
Since the band is thinner and this is a moisture-rich storm, this is subject to change.  If dry air moves in from the south, our SE counties could pick up less snow but areas just to the north could see more.  Expect terrain to play a part, as well.  The Coteau and Buffalo Ridge typically see higher amounts.  We’ve included an area of 6”+ mostly across the Minnesota border.   A good breeze will move in behind the denser snow.  Blowing snow is a concern but winds won’t be as strong as in earlier winter storms.
Another slow warm-up will take hold by Wednesday and Thursday.  This will finally give the east a chance to get to more seasonal numbers.